Don’t forget the referee, Craig Joubert.
Why this game?
The opening Olympic match for both the USA and Argentina.
Narrative
Argentina and the USA finished fifth and sixth in the 2015-2016 World Series, only separated by two points. They split their two matches in the season 1-1. Considering both teams are likely to beat Brazil and lose to Fiji, this match is crucial to advancing to the Olympic quarter-finals.
Analysis
| Argentina opportunity #1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 37 | Restart | 1.0 | 37 | Lost kickoff | 0 |
| USA opportunity #1 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 63 | Kickoff | 2.7 | 47 | Knock | 0 |
The match opened with a tremendous airborne kickoff gather and pass by Danny Barrett on the touch line, netting the USA 3.7 expected points. The exciting start was quickly dampened as the USA knocked on their next pass, an uncharacteristic Pinkleman offload.
| Argentina opportunity #2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 53 | Scrum | 2.6 | 85 | Pen | 0 |
| 85 | Pen | 3.6 | 98 | Lost ruck | 0 |
Argentina won their scrum and patiently worked the ball laterally before Etchart broke from practically nowhere past Unufe. Referee Craig Joubert would factor heavily in the match and awarded Argentina a penalty on a fairly innocent Perry Baker tackle that was deemed too high. USA defended admirably and stole the ball 2 meters from their tryline, a play that nets 5 points on average.
| USA opportunity #2 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 2 | Turnover | 0.6 | 22 | Pen | 0 |
| 22 | Pen | 1.3 | 40 | Lineout | 0 |
| 40 | Lineout | 1.4 | 32 | Loose pass | 0 |
The USA pushed their way out of their own try zone, earning a penalty to set up a lineout 10m from half-way. After winning the lineout, their expected points rose to 1.7. Barrett broke a tackle wide and with support, a break was potentially on. But he threw a backdoor pass to no one and Argentina scooped up the loose ball.
| Argentina opportunity #3 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 68 | Turnover | 3.2 | 100 | Try | 7 |
Argentina cut through the USA again, this time providing Ezcurra a large gap from a switch. After a ruck penalty, Muller steamrolled Hughes to finally cash in on the America’s mistakes. Revol made the difficult conversion from a width of 22m, adding a point above the average.
| USA opportunity #3 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 35 | Kickoff | 1.1 | 28 | Pen | 0 |
| 28 | Pen | 1.5 | 56 | Pen | 0 |
Baker won the restart and was tip-tackled by Alvarez who earned Argentina’s first of three yellow cards. The USA created their first break but were penalized at the breakdown. This call went against Unufe who didn’t have his best game.
| Argentina opportunity #4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 44 | Penalty | 2.1 | 66 | Lineout | 0 |
| 66 | Lineout | 2.1 | 74 | Turnover | 0 |
| USA opportunity #4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 25 | Turnover | 1.7 | 25 | Knock | 0 |
Argentina took their time, killing valuable seconds off the first sin bin. Their neutral attack was stolen at a ruck for the second time by the Americans. The USA immediately knocked the ball on, however, giving back the almost 4 points their turnover yielded while also allowing Argentina to return to 7 men.
| Argentina opportunity #5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 75 | Scrum | 3.4 | 68 | Pen | 0 |
| 68 | Pen | 2.9 | 85 | Knock | 0 |
The final possession of the half saw Argentina earn yet another penalty and create a threatening half-break. But the offload was knocked on, ending a penalty and error-ridden half of rugby with Argentina up 7-0.
| USA opportunity #5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 35 | Restart | 1.1 | 35 | Knock | 0 |
| Argentina opportunity #6 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 65 | Turnover | 2.8 | 82 | Touch | 0 |
The USA were fortunate to only be down 7 at half and, set to receive the kickoff, had a chance to turn the game around. Argentina found a hole with a low trajectory kick and Pinkleman couldn’t handle the reception. This was the American’s third knock-on. But little harm was done as a patient Argentina attack was forced into touch, giving back the more than 3 point swing.
| USA opportunity #6 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 18 | Quick lineout | 0.9 | 20 | Kick | 0 |
| Argentina opportunity #7 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 53 | Kick | 2.4 | 98 | Pen | 0 |
| 95 | Pen | 4.5 | 100 | Try | 5 |
Niua’s decision to take the lineout quickly was defensible considering lineout success is in the 75-80% range. But Hughes kicked the ball straight back to Argentina, giving up about 1.5 points, while unsuccessfully attempting to draw a penalty for obstruction.
Enter Craig Joubert. The next few minutes of the match contained curious and influential refereeing decisions. Argentina continued to create half-breaks into the USA’s defensive line and when it looked like Etchart would score, Barrett dove and hauled him down by his collar. Joubert rightly blew the whistle but considering the penalty occurred a few meters from the try zone with no other players around, a penalty try was the right call.
Argentina took the penalty quickly and dove close to the try zone but appeared to knock the ball on. Joubert, behind the play and completely shielded from view of the ball, awarded the try. His assistants prompted him to use the replay which showed that the ball came out of Luna’s hands, bounced on the ground, and then was possibly grounded. Craig decided two wrongs made a right and gave Argentina their try.
| USA opportunity #7 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 34 | Kickoff | 1.1 | 19 | Penalty | 0 |
| 19 | Penalty | 1.2 | 49 | Lineout | 0 |
| 49 | Lineout | 1.7 | 100 | Penalty Try | 7 |
A successful kickoff reception gave way to static offense for the USA, now down to scores. Argentina bailed the USA out with another dump tackle and yellow card. From a lineout worth 1.7 expected points near half-way, the USA created their best offensive effort, springing Test for a clean break. He sprinted towards the try zone but was caught just short by Imhoff. Imhoff’s tackle was over the shoulder but didn’t look imprope. In fact, it seemed excellent considering it jarred the ball loose short of the line. However, Joubert gave a penalty try and sent Imhoff to the bin.
| Argentina opportunity #8 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 26 | Kickoff | 1.0 | 30 | Loose ball | 0 |
| USA opportunity #8 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 70 | Turnover | 3.3 | 100 | Try | 7 |
Argentina, down to 5 men was bound to lose the ball and eventually did with a loose pass. The turnover was at least a 4.3 point swing. The USA made good, scoring a converted try to take the lead with less than a minute to go.
| Argentina opportunity #9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start Loc. | Source | Exp. Pts. | End Loc. | Reason | Act. Pts. |
| 50 | Free kick | 2.3 | 100 | Try | 5 |
With the USA seemingly set to steal the game through yellow cards, Niua’s kickoff didn’t go ten meters and Argentina was awarded a free kick at half-way. This was a terrible time to give Argentina added possession value and guaranteed possession. Only down 2 and back to 7 men, Argentina now had a possession worth 2.3 on average. They patiently and skillfully worked down the field and founda broad overlap to race into the corner for the game winner.
| Summary Statistics | ||
|---|---|---|
| USA | Argentina | |
| Possessions in Hand | 7 | 8 |
| Expected Points Based on Starting Positions/Sources | 12.5 | 21.3 |
| Expected Points Sequence | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| Kickoff Points Added | -1.1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Reception Points Added | -2.7 | -3.4 |
| Scrum and Lineout Points Added | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Open Play Points Added | -0.4 | -4.2 |
| Conversion Points Added | 0.3 | 1 |
| Line Breaks | 2 | 3 |
| Half Breaks | 1 | 4 |
| Meters Gained / Possible in Hand | 109 / 451 = 24% | 213 / 310 = 69% |
Conclusion
The amount of handling errors and penalties is displayed in the poor loose play numbers. Overall the teams performed poorly and Argentina was expected to score more based on the USA turning the ball over in quality possession situations. The three yellow cards were also likely contributing factors to under performance. But Argentina found more space and created more offense, including the necessary winner as time expired.
The USA, for having a generally abysmal offensive performance had their chances to win the game. Overall they will surely be disappointed and are on the edge of missing the quarter-finals. No underlying factors point to being unlucky, the Americans simply committed too many errors. Though we wouldn’t expect them to commit as many in future games. Getting to 14 points was an overachievement in this match. The USA will need to improve their handling in order to be competitive versus Fiji.