This past weekend I posted a simple table of individual conversion stats gathered from World Rugby. It was a complete list along with each kicker’s conversion success rate. World Rugby keeps tabs on the leaders in total conversions, but we can’t tell who are actually the best kickers since the quantity and difficulty of the attempts are not equal.
Fortunately, I track the width of each conversion attempt. With this, I ran a logistic regression for success rate dependent on the conversion width. This regression allows us to plug in the width of a conversion to get the average success rate at that width. For example, a dead-center conversion is expected to be made around 97% of the time while a conversion from the touchline is only successful about 18% of the time.
In this fashion I calculated how many points each kicker’s profile of kicks is worth if averaged across all kickers. For example, let’s say a kicker had two attempts, one from dead-center and one from the touchline. Using the percentages from above, the average (across all kickers) would earn .97 x 2 = 1.94 points on the centered conversion and .18 x 2 = .36 points on the wide kick for a total of 2.3 points.
Again, this is on average. So some kickers do better than others. If Kicker A made both kicks to score 4 points, he actually scored 1.7 more points than the average. And if Kicker B missed both, his 0 points are 2.3 points less than the average. Using this method I tallied how many points above or below the average each kicker has added through all of his attempts.
| Player | Team | Cons | Attempts | % | Pts+ | Pts+ per Att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaston Revol | ARG | 59 | 88 | 67.0 % | 17.8 | 0.20 |
| Scott Wight | SCO | 95 | 126 | 75.4 % | 14.8 | 0.12 |
| Ethan Davies | WAL | 82 | 113 | 72.6 % | 12.5 | 0.11 |
| Terry Bouhraoua | FRA | 43 | 57 | 75.4 % | 11.3 | 0.20 |
| James Stannard | AUS | 74 | 117 | 63.2 % | 10.2 | 0.09 |
| Rocky Khan | NZL | 40 | 53 | 75.5 % | 9.6 | 0.18 |
| Tom Mitchell | ENG | 79 | 114 | 69.3 % | 9.5 | 0.08 |
| Katsuyuki Sakai | JPN | 45 | 62 | 72.6 % | 7.5 | 0.12 |
| Nathan Hirayama | CAN | 71 | 105 | 67.6 % | 6.4 | 0.06 |
| Branco Du Preez | RSA | 67 | 108 | 62.0 % | 3.7 | 0.03 |
| Beaudein Waaka | NZL | 30 | 46 | 65.2 % | 3.2 | 0.07 |
| Isaac Te Tamaki | NZL | 9 | 12 | 75.0 % | 3.1 | 0.26 |
| Javier Rojas | ARG | 23 | 36 | 63.9 % | 2.2 | 0.06 |
| Joe Webber | NZL | 3 | 5 | 60.0 % | 2.1 | 0.42 |
| Tila Mealoi | SAM | 72 | 108 | 66.7 % | 2.1 | 0.02 |
| Osea Kolinisau | FIJ | 74 | 104 | 71.2 % | 2.1 | 0.02 |
| Folau Niua | USA | 4 | 10 | 40.0 % | 2.1 | 0.21 |
| Kevin Kermundu | UGA | 3 | 3 | 100.0 % | 2.0 | 0.67 |
| Vatemo Ravouvou | FIJ | 39 | 62 | 62.9 % | 2.0 | 0.03 |
| Tom Lucas | AUS | 16 | 21 | 76.2 % | 1.8 | 0.09 |
| Amenoni Nasilasila | FIJ | 11 | 15 | 73.3 % | 1.7 | 0.11 |
| Lloyd Evans | WAL | 1 | 2 | 50.0 % | 1.6 | 0.80 |
| Billy McBryde | WAL | 10 | 12 | 83.3 % | 1.3 | 0.11 |
| Rosko Specman | RSA | 2 | 2 | 100.0 % | 1.1 | 0.55 |
| Igor Genua | ESP | 4 | 5 | 80.0 % | 1.1 | 0.22 |
| Han Gumin | KOR | 2 | 2 | 100.0 % | 1.0 | 0.50 |
| Sam Caslick | AUS | 4 | 6 | 66.7 % | 1.0 | 0.17 |
| Alivereti Veitokani | FIJ | 6 | 10 | 60.0 % | 1.0 | 0.10 |
| Alexis Palisson | FRA | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | 1.0 | 1.00 |
| Stephen Parez | FRA | 10 | 14 | 71.4 % | 0.8 | 0.06 |
| Leon Ellison | JPN | 12 | 16 | 75.0 % | 0.7 | 0.04 |
| Jonathan Ruru | NZL | 2 | 5 | 40.0 % | 0.7 | 0.14 |
| George Horne | SCO | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.5 | 0.50 |
| Luke Treharne | WAL | 5 | 8 | 62.5 % | 0.5 | 0.06 |
| Jean Pascal Barraque | FRA | 21 | 31 | 67.7 % | 0.5 | 0.02 |
| Domingo Miotti | ARG | 3 | 5 | 60.0 % | 0.4 | 0.08 |
| Madison Hughes | USA | 92 | 142 | 64.8 % | 0.4 | 0.00 |
| Selvyn Davids | RSA | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.4 | 0.40 |
| Vladimir Ostroushko | RUS | 1 | 2 | 50.0 % | 0.4 | 0.20 |
| Will Edwards | ENG | 5 | 5 | 100.0 % | 0.3 | 0.06 |
| German Klubus | ARG | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.2 | 0.20 |
| Pablo Fontes | ESP | 2 | 2 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| Julien Candelon | FRA | 2 | 2 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| Alatasi Tupou | SAM | 9 | 13 | 69.2 % | 0.1 | 0.01 |
| Mikhail Kudinov | RUS | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Emosi Mulevoro | FIJ | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Jamie Henry | JPN | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Ilya Babaev | RUS | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Tomasi Alosio | SAM | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Nick McLennan | SCO | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Laaloi Leilual | SAM | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Masahiro Nakano | JPN | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Patrick Stehlin | JPN | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Andrew Durutalo | USA | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Josua Vici | FIJ | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| James Johnstone | SCO | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Dewald Human | RSA | 1 | 1 | 100.0 % | 0.1 | 0.10 |
| Stephen Tomasin | USA | 17 | 23 | 73.9 % | 0.1 | 0.00 |
| Emmanuel Guise | PNG | 2 | 3 | 66.7 % | -0.1 | -0.03 |
| Joaquin Riera | ARG | 4 | 10 | 40.0 % | -0.1 | -0.01 |
| Kosuke Hashino | JPN | 6 | 9 | 66.7 % | -0.3 | -0.03 |
| John Porch | AUS | 2 | 3 | 66.7 % | -0.3 | -0.10 |
| Justin Geduld | RSA | 27 | 45 | 60.0 % | -0.3 | -0.01 |
| Gavin Lowe | SCO | 10 | 16 | 62.5 % | -0.3 | -0.02 |
| Nicolas Menendez | ARG | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.4 | -0.40 |
| Phil Burgess | ENG | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.4 | -0.40 |
| Eugene Tokavai | PNG | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.5 | -0.50 |
| Gregor Hunter | SCO | 2 | 3 | 66.7 % | -0.5 | -0.17 |
| Harry Jones | CAN | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.6 | -0.60 |
| Brandon Quinn | AUS | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.6 | -0.60 |
| Blair Kinghorn | SCO | 1 | 2 | 50.0 % | -0.7 | -0.35 |
| Yoshiaki Tsurugasaki | JPN | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.7 | -0.70 |
| Scott Curry | NZL | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.7 | -0.70 |
| Vincent Inigo | FRA | 1 | 2 | 50.0 % | -0.7 | -0.35 |
| Pierre Popelin | FRA | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.8 | -0.80 |
| Francisco Urroz | CHL | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.8 | -0.80 |
| Cecil Afrika | RSA | 30 | 46 | 65.2 % | -0.8 | -0.02 |
| Liam McNamara | AUS | 0 | 2 | 0.0 % | -0.9 | -0.45 |
| Matias Ferro | ARG | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.9 | -0.90 |
| Martin Iosefo | USA | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -0.9 | -0.90 |
| Tate McDermott | AUS | 1 | 2 | 50.0 % | -1.0 | -0.50 |
| Kitione Taliga | FIJ | 8 | 10 | 80.0 % | -1.2 | -0.12 |
| Jamie Hood | HKG | 4 | 8 | 50.0 % | -1.2 | -0.15 |
| Fernando Luna | ARG | 2 | 3 | 66.7 % | -1.2 | -0.40 |
| Lee Jaebok | KOR | 0 | 1 | 0.0 % | -1.3 | -1.30 |
| Morgan Williams | WAL | 1 | 3 | 33.3 % | -1.8 | -0.60 |
| Mike Fuailefau | CAN | 3 | 5 | 60.0 % | -1.9 | -0.38 |
| Tim Mikkelson | NZL | 1 | 4 | 25.0 % | -2.0 | -0.50 |
| Yury Gostyuzhev | RUS | 1 | 4 | 25.0 % | -2.1 | -0.52 |
| Jeremy Aicardi | FRA | 11 | 15 | 73.3 % | -2.3 | -0.15 |
| Mike Teo | USA | 2 | 6 | 33.3 % | -2.5 | -0.42 |
| Brian Tanga | KEN | 8 | 14 | 57.1 % | -2.6 | -0.19 |
| Philip Wokorach | UGA | 11 | 19 | 57.9 % | -2.6 | -0.14 |
| Ruhan Nel | RSA | 1 | 3 | 33.3 % | -2.7 | -0.90 |
| Oliver Lindsay-Hague | ENG | 0 | 2 | 0.0 % | -2.7 | -1.35 |
| Arthur Clement | PNG | 5 | 8 | 62.5 % | -2.9 | -0.36 |
| Waisea Nacuqu | FIJ | 7 | 11 | 63.6 % | -3.2 | -0.29 |
| Lautaro Bazan Velez | ARG | 1 | 5 | 20.0 % | -3.2 | -0.64 |
| Roman Roshchin | RUS | 0 | 5 | 0.0 % | -3.6 | -0.72 |
| Marcelo Torrealba | CHL | 6 | 12 | 50.0 % | -3.9 | -0.32 |
| Jamie Booth | NZL | 0 | 3 | 0.0 % | -3.9 | -1.30 |
| Eden Agero | KEN | 27 | 39 | 69.2 % | -4.1 | -0.11 |
| German Davydov | RUS | 4 | 10 | 40.0 % | -4.2 | -0.42 |
| Daniel Bibby | ENG | 25 | 41 | 61.0 % | -5.0 | -0.12 |
| Dmitry Perov | RUS | 3 | 10 | 30.0 % | -5.4 | -0.54 |
| Lugonzo Augustine Ligamy | KEN | 16 | 25 | 64.0 % | -6.6 | -0.26 |
| Pat Kay | CAN | 18 | 30 | 60.0 % | -8.4 | -0.28 |
| Vilimoni Koroi | NZL | 19 | 40 | 47.5 % | -9.7 | -0.24 |
| Samuel Oliech | KEN | 33 | 53 | 62.3 % | -14.2 | -0.27 |
| Dmitry Sukhin | RUS | 24 | 52 | 46.2 % | -16.4 | -0.32 |
So while Scott Wight has the best success rate, Gaston Revol has added the most points above the average for his profile of kicks. This is due to Revol’s more difficult set of kicks (average width of ~20m compared to Wight’s ~14m). If given Wight’s set of conversion attempts, Revol would likely have a higher success rate.
The last column shows our points added on a per attempt basis. This helps us compare kickers who may have significantly different quantities of kicks. Terry Bouhraoua has many fewer attempts due to injury, but his points added per attempt is as good as Revol’s.
It should be noted that both of these metrics are influenced by the profile of kicks. If a kicker was given 100 kicks from straight in front of the posts and made them all, they could only add .06 points per attempt for a total of 6 points added. But all of the regular kickers above avoid this sort of extreme kicking profile.
Application
While not perfect, I think this method does a better job comparing kickers than success rate alone. Also, quantifying each kicker’s ability in terms of points helps frame their influence on an individual match or tournament, where one extra touch-line conversion can greatly influence the outcome.