Category: Prediction

London 2017 Predictions

South Africa has wrapped up the championship but England and Fiji are battling for second. The predictions below weight Hong Kong, Singapore, and Paris more heavily than early tournaments.

Pool A

Is this when the USA gets by South Africa? SA is 6-0 against the Americans but not without some tight encounters. The Blitzboks are back to form, having conceded only seven tries in Paris, while the Eagles struggled defensively with a 36.4% defensive contact failure rate. Kenya looks like they’ve effectively cashed out on 2016-2017 while Wales missed Treharne who may be back for London.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 76 % 95 %
USA 21 % 76 %
Wales 2 % 13 %
Kenya 2 % 16 %

Pool B

Scotland was the surprise of Paris. With George Horne back they have a dynamic playmaker and produced the most meters of any team. Argentina rolled out a young squad who improved quickly and can push for a pool win here. France did a much better job stealing opponent’s possessions and could pull an upset here, especially against a possession heavy Scotland.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Scotland 47 % 77 %
Argentina 34 % 70 %
France 18 % 50 %
Russia < 1 % 4 %

Pool C

Oh, Fiji and New Zealand, this will never get old. Fiji’s ill-discipline caught up with them in Paris but they’ll still be slightly favored versus NZ. Canada has the ability to knock NZ out of quarter-finals. Expect a slow game where a break or two by Canada’s big runners could be all they need. Their contact failure rate was the worst of all teams in Paris but fortunately NZ implements a methodical gameplan. Japan need to make the quarter-finals to have a shot at avoiding relegation. That’s a tough proposition.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Fiji 55 % 86 %
New Zealand 37 % 82 %
Canada 8 % 31 %
Japan < 1 % < 1 %

Pool D

England have a manageable pool for their home tournament but must also manage their injuries. Mitchell is out and their backup kickers struggle with conversions, but they do get de Carpentier back. Australia had a rough Paris, winning only one of their own kickoffs and having the lowest defensive contact success rate. Samoa improved in Paris but their pool win over Australia was boosted by McNamara’s red card.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
England 64 % 91 %
Australia 27 % 70 %
Samoa 9 % 38 %
Spain < 1 % < 1 %

Tournament Finish

It’s the usual suspects for tournament favorites with South Africa leading the way. Outside of England likely crossing over with South Africa or the USA, the quarter-finals shouldn’t force a matchup between any of the top teams. This should produce excellent semi-finals and a great final match of the 2016-2017 series.

Paris 2017 Predictions

I’ve added some recency to the predictions here, weighting Hong Kong and Singapore results more heavily than other tournaments. But I still lack adjustments for personnel. So a team like England, who played much of Hong Kong and Singapore without captain Tom Mitchell, may be overly hurt by the recency adjustment considering Mitchell is back for Paris.

Pool A

Even considering Canada’s surprise victory in Singapore, they’ll still be heavy underdogs against South Africa who can clinch the series title this weekend. Scotland has leveled off into an average series team but has a good shot at getting back to their first quarter-finals since Wellington.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 86 % 97 %
Canada 11 % 58 %
Scotland 3 % 43 %
Japan < 1 % 3 %

Pool B

This pool is loaded and should create some exciting matches. Some of the best USA games this year have come against both New Zealand and Argentina. I’m always on the lookout for NZ missing their first quarter-final ever and there’s a reasonable chance it occurs this weekend. The USA versus New Zealand match has ramifications on the overall series standings where the Eagles could still pass NZ for fourth.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
New Zealand 47 % 82 %
USA 42 % 77 %
Argentina 8 % 28 %
Wales 4 % 14 %

Pool C

As mentioned above, England wasn’t up to their best in Hong Kong and Singapore and thus, the numbers are a bit lower than expected. Kenya will look for revenge from that wild Singapore quarter-final. France and Hong Kong qualifier winners Spain are both excellent at restarts, an area of weakness for Kenya. France performed well at their home tournament last year and is 1-0 against England so far this season.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
England 70 % 92 %
Kenya 20 % 63 %
France 10 % 42 %
Spain < 1 % 4 %

Pool D

Over the last two tournaments Fiji has performed the best. They should see competition from Australia and a match with Samoa could get physical, but the Fijians should roll to a favorable quarter-final versus Canada or Scotland. We’ve seen some improvements from Samoa but they struggled in both Hong Kong and Singapore.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Fiji 82 % 98 %
Australia 17 % 82 %
Samoa 1 % 18 %
Russia < 1 % 2 %

Tournament Finish

Despite the emphasis on recent tournaments, South Africa is still favored, though their advantage over Fiji is narrow. They are both positioned to avoid each other until the final, a match we would all surely enjoy.

Keep in mind that since 7th, 11th, and 15th places don’t have a playoff decider, those rows in the image below total to 200%. These finishes effectively absorb the 100% from finishes 8th, 12th, and 16th that don’t get decided. For example, while Australia’s most likely finish is 7th, after a 5th-place semifinal loss, it’s roughly as likely they win that 5th-place semifinal. After which, their finish is distributed between 5th or 6th places.

Singapore 2017 Predictions

Pool A

After winning Hong Kong, Fiji was given a very weak pool that they should cruise through. Canada is also well-placed to make their fourth-straight quarter-final. Russia will have their best shot at a quarter-final all year and if they manage to pull an upset, may shut the door on Japan in the relegation battle.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Fiji 89 % > 99 %
Canada 11 % 86 %
Russia < 1 % 13 %
Hong Kong < 1 % 2 %

Pool B

South Africa and England meet again, their sixth match of the year. Though South Africa is trending down from an incredible start to the season, they are still well-favored to beat England. England and France will meet for the first time this season and England are heavy favorites despite a disappointing end to Hong Kong. France’s defense has been on decline and could get pipped by an improving Japan attack.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 78 % > 99 %
England 22 % 92 %
France < 1 % 8 %
Japan < 1 % < 1 %

Pool C

This is our first chaos pool in quite some time. All teams have reasonable shots at the quarter-finals. Australia may go from third in Hong Kong to the Challenge rounds in Singapore. They were outgained in their big wins and the defensive decline may catch up to them. The pool finish won’t matter too much as those advancing should face either South Africa or England, but a South Africa versus Argentina matchup would be the first of the year.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Australia 44 % 73 %
Argentina 34 % 65 %
Kenya 15 % 38 %
Samoa 7 % 24 %

Pool D

I’m looking forward to NZ vs the USA as it always seems to be a tight affair. This matchup will go a long way towards determining the pool winner who should get a favorable quarter-final, likely against Canada. Scotland and Wales have very similar profiles; they make few defensive errors, commit few turnovers, force few turnovers, and make a whole lot of passes. Overall this is the toughest pool and no game is a sure thing.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
New Zealand 54 % 87 %
USA 38 % 78 %
Scotland 4 % 18 %
Wales 4 % 17 %

Tournament Finish

I’m sure I’ll receive a lot of push back on South Africa’s odds considering their roster is still hampered by injuries and they were demolished in the Hong Kong final. Despite the decline, their hopes are buoyed by what should be a manageable pool and potential quarter-final. Meanwhile Fiji will likely face either New Zealand or the USA in their quarter-final. One additional game against a top team, especially in the knockout rounds, significantly alters a team’s chances for first place.

Hong Kong 2017 Predictions

Pool A

Australia look to bounce back from a poor Vancouver performance, in part due to untimely turnovers near the try line. Samoa has improved through the year and their handling errors and tackling failures are starting to decrease. But they are still likely destined for the Challenge rounds. England versus Samoa will be a rematch of the feisty Las Vegas game where a season-high 13 penalties were dished out.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
England 81 % 98 %
Australia 16 % 76 %
Samoa 2 % 26 %
South Korea <1 % <1 %

Pool B

After another loss to England, South Africa looks vulnerable. The Blitzboks, without Speckman, Geduld, Brown, Smith, Senatla, and Dippennar, may not be as dominant as earlier this season but they are still clearly the leaders for this otherwise well-balanced pool. Kenya will be missing Ambaka and Sikuta while France was anticipating a return of Vakatawa before injury ruled him out. Meanwhile the Canadians are without big man Adam Zaruba and Phil Berna. Combined, the teams are fielding five debutants.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 98 % >99 %
Canada 1 % 37 %
Kenya <1 % 37 %
France <1 % 27 %

Pool C

Fiji versus New Zealand in Hong Kong, you don’t say. The likely pool decider will surely bring the crowd to their feet. NZ and Japan haven’t played since Japan’s upset in Rio, but considering Japan’s current form, it should be a one-sided affair. Wales is fairly bad in the first half, and quite good in the second half so far this season. If they can keep games tight until halftime, they could pull off an upset.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Fiji 56 % 93 %
New Zealand 41 % 90 %
Wales 4 % 17 %
Japan <1 % <1 %

Pool D

The USA has edged Argentina in two very exciting quarter-finals in the past two tournaments. The USA holds a strong edge at the kickoff and gaining an extra possession or two could be all the edge they need. Scotland has continued to decline and suffered a loss to Russia in Vancouver. Scotland’s numbers are still bolstered by early-season success but they are slowly becoming a below-average team.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
USA 58 % 88 %
Argentina 29 % 70 %
Scotland 12 % 41 %
Russia <1 % 1 %

Tournament Finish

I finally finished a full tournament simulator and the distribution for each team’s finish is below. South Africa have a 59% chance of winning the tournament. But you may want to bring that number down considering their injuries.

The simulator considers how the pools crossover which is why the USA is more likely to make the top four than New Zealand even though a head-to-head matchup between the two teams would favor the kiwis. NZ has a greater likelihood of finishing second in their pool, mostly due to Fiji. And if NZ does finish second, they likely meet South Africa in the quarters. The USA avoids South Africa and would likely face Australia in the quarters. A second-place pool finish for the Eagles should pit them against England, a difficult matchup but not as tough as South Africa.

Vancouver 2017 Pool Predictions

After a mostly upset free finish to Las Vegas, the Vancouver pool’s are well-balanced. No third place team has a greater than 8% chance to win their pool. The tightest game for a quarter-final spot is in Pool D where Canada hopes a large home crowd can push them past Scotland.

Pool A

South Africa continues to amaze but is now without Justin Geduld. England is the only team to beat them this season and both teams will want to avoid crossing over with New Zealand in the quarters. Kenya is the team that could-be, but can’t win kickoffs. I was impressed by Chile and wouldn’t be surprised if they won a Challenge Trophy match Sunday.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 83 % >99 %
England 16 % 86 %
Kenya <1 % 15 %
Chile <1 % <1 %

 

Pool B

Ravouvou and Mocenacagi are suspended one and three games respectively for Fiji but they should still win the pool. I like how Argentina has been playing and their win over New Zealand shows they have a shot against Fiji. Wales had a disappointing Las Vegas statistically. They have a very poor first half split and need to start strong if they want out of the pool. Leilua was exciting for Samoa but overall they lack the defensive prowess to contend with the top squads.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Fiji 82 % 97 %
Argentina 13 % 65 %
Wales 3 % 25 %
Samoa 2 % 14 %

 

Pool C

USA versus Australia should be the tightest game of day one. Both teams feature some exciting offense while the the defense is a contrast between the aggressive Americans and the more conservative Aussies. If France gets hot on their kickoffs they could pull an upset. Japan continues to improve and a 2% chance for the quarters is their highest all season.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
USA 47 % 85 %
Australia 45 % 84 %
France 8 % 29 %
Japan <1 % 2 %

 

Pool D

The way NZ is improving I could see them winning the tournament, or at least beating the Boks sometime this season. Koroi is the real deal and leads a group of young players adding some much-needed dynamism. I’m struggling to understand Scotland recently. They started the series with some fearless play that highlighted great team speed. But recently they seem constrained by a need for structure. I hope Canada can work themselves into a quarter-final spot, just for the fans’ sake. Meanwhile Russia returned to their offensive struggles in Vegas. They are dead last in forcing contact failures and should get shut down by New Zealand’s and Scotland’s strong defenses.

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
New Zealand 76 % 94 %
Scotland 15 % 62 %
Canada 8 % 40 %
Russia <1 % 4 %

Las Vegas 2017 Pool Predictions

It’s Vegas after all.

There are no guarantees in forecasting, but South Africa does have an astonishingly high chance of making the quarter-finals. The battle for second in Pool A between France, Wales, and Canada should be very entertaining. It may come down to who did best in a losing effort versus South Africa.

Pool A

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 98.2 % 99.95 %
France 0.8 % 36.7 %
Wales 0.7 % 33.1 %
Canada 0.4 % 30.3 %

Pool B has the clearest top two of any pool, England and USA should go through. Samoa’s handling has continued to be a problem but the narrow field has helped them in the past. I slotted Chile with PNG’s stats rather than Uganda’s as I don’t have high hopes for the Condors.

Pool B

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
England 78.8 % 98.4 %
USA 19.6 % 84.0 %
Samoa 1.6 % 17.5 %
Chile 0.0 % 0.2 %

New Zealand should maintain their quarter-final streak while Argentina and Kenya will battle for second in Pool C. My numbers don’t think Russia’s resurgence in Sydney is all that maintainable. I expect an intense ruck battle in that Russia Kenya match.

Pool C

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
New Zealand 67.7 % 91.1 %
Argentina 19.0 % 61.5 %
Kenya 13.2 % 44.6 %
Russia 0.1 % 2.9 %

Fiji is a top three team but much more vulnerable than last season. Their offense has remained excellent but defensively they have weakened. Australia (in yet another tight pool) has the defense to create a close game and Scotland has the offense to match scores. Japan won a game in Sydney but should lose three in this pool.

Pool D

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Fiji 72.9 % 94.6 %
Australia 18.8 % 67.2 %
Scotland 8.4 % 38.1 %
Japan 0.0 % 0.2 %

Sydney 2017 Pool Predictions

Last week’s Wellington predictions were foiled by Canada’s surprise pool win and USA’s not-as-surprising 1-1-1 pool record. This week they find themselves together in possibly the tightest pool, Pool D. No team has a greater than 50% chance to come out on top.

Pool C is also tight. Australia, who I still rate in the top 8, may miss the quarter-finals again due to a difficult pool. New Zealand should keep their quarter-final streak alive while PNG is clearly set for the Challenge rounds on day 2.

Pool B has a tight contest for second between France and Wales while it also features the best 4th place team in Samoa. Meanwhile, Pool A should be dominated by two of the top three teams on the series, South Africa and England.

Pool A

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 87.8 % 99.5 %
England 11.5 % 83.7 %
Kenya 0.6 % 16.6 %
Japan 0.0 % 0.1 %

Pool B

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Fiji 84.1 % 97.0 %
France 9.2 % 52.7 %
Wales 4.9 % 35.0 %
Samoa 1.7 % 15.3 %

Pool C

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
New Zealand 51.2 % 81.6 %
Scotland 24.6 % 61.7 %
Australia 24.2 % 56.7 %
PNG 0.0 % 0.0 %

Pool D

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
USA 46.1 % 81.0 %
Argentina 41.9 % 78.3 %
Canada 12.0 % 40.0 %
Russia 0.0 % 0.7 %

Wellington 2017 Pool Predictions

Using adjusted opportunity, gather, try, and conversion rates I am able simulate the score of matches. Then simulating each pool’s games 1000 times, I am able to predict each team’s chances of winning their pool or finishing in the top two. This method of simulating accommodates all of the different ways a pool can finish.

The simulations only use data from Dubai and Cape Town so I believe there is some overfitting happening. More than likely, each team should be closer to 50/50 than they are shown. Also, injuries are not accounted for. I don’t expect South Africa to be as dominant without Kyle Brown and Cecil Afrika. Lastly, I do not have data for Papua New Guinea so they are using data from Uganda. But considering PNG’s performance in previous tournaments, Uganda’s stats are only helping PNG’s chances.

Pool A

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
England 75.7 % 94.5 %
Argentina 16.8 % 67.2 %
Kenya 7.5 % 37.4 %
PNG 0.0 % 0.9 %

Pool B

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 87.2 % 98.8 %
Fiji 11.2 % 68.8 %
Australia 1.6 % 32.4 %
Japan 0.0 % 0.0 %

Pool C

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
USA 50.8 % 82.3 %
New Zealand 36.7 % 71.5 %
France 11.4 % 37.6 %
Samoa 1.1 % 8.6 %

Pool D

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Scotland 65.8 % 92.7 %
Wales 29.3 % 81.5 %
Canada 4.9 % 23.0 %
Russia 0.0 % 2.8 %