Tag: Wellington 2017

Wellington 2017 Stats

Here are my standard stats tables for the Wellington round of the HSBC Sevens World Series.

Adjusted Rates

Team Adj Try Rate Opponent Adj Try Rate Adj Gather Rate Opponent Adj Gather Rate Adj Margin
South Africa 0.60 0.05 1.00 0.89 32.01
Fiji 0.49 0.21 0.94 0.79 17.19
Canada 0.57 0.34 0.97 0.74 15.06
New Zealand 0.42 0.30 0.99 0.82 9.04
Scotland 0.45 0.29 0.94 0.89 8.68
England 0.36 0.30 0.92 0.72 7.00
Argentina 0.37 0.34 0.92 0.94 0.59
Australia 0.39 0.37 0.85 0.86 0.08
Kenya 0.36 0.41 0.87 0.91 -1.74
France 0.34 0.46 0.80 0.84 -5.76
USA 0.29 0.40 0.86 0.92 -6.45
Wales 0.31 0.39 0.80 0.92 -7.47
Samoa 0.27 0.53 0.81 0.88 -13.22
Russia 0.12 0.45 0.85 0.94 -17.76
Japan 0.23 0.54 0.84 0.97 -18.32
Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.66 0.65 0.97 -29.76

Possession

Team Games Opps Opp Rate Gathers Gather Rate
Argentina 6 48 8.00 44 0.92
Australia 6 52 8.67 45 0.87
Canada 6 42 7.00 41 0.98
England 5 43 8.60 41 0.95
Fiji 6 56 9.33 53 0.95
France 5 42 8.40 34 0.81
Japan 5 44 8.80 37 0.84
Kenya 6 55 9.17 49 0.89
New Zealand 6 50 8.33 48 0.96
Papua New Guinea 5 47 9.40 31 0.66
South Africa 6 49 8.17 48 0.98
Russia 6 48 8.00 41 0.85
Samoa 6 47 7.83 39 0.83
Scotland 6 49 8.17 43 0.88
USA 5 44 8.80 38 0.86
Wales 5 44 8.80 36 0.82

Scoring

Team Tries Try Rate Con Atmpts Cons Con Rate
Argentina 19 0.43 19 10 0.53
Australia 17 0.38 17 9 0.53
Canada 21 0.51 21 12 0.57
England 17 0.41 16 12 0.75
Fiji 22 0.42 22 17 0.77
France 11 0.32 11 11 1.00
Japan 5 0.14 4 3 0.75
Kenya 21 0.43 21 14 0.67
New Zealand 20 0.42 20 13 0.65
Papua New Guinea 5 0.16 5 4 0.80
South Africa 28 0.58 28 22 0.79
Russia 7 0.17 7 1 0.14
Samoa 14 0.36 14 11 0.79
Scotland 18 0.42 18 13 0.72
USA 14 0.37 14 9 0.64
Wales 14 0.39 14 7 0.50

Opponent Possession

Team Games Opponent Opps Opponent Opp Rate Opponent Gathers Opponent Gather Rate
Argentina 6 45 7.50 41 0.91
Australia 6 51 8.50 44 0.86
Canada 6 43 7.17 34 0.79
England 5 40 8.00 29 0.72
Fiji 6 56 9.33 48 0.86
France 5 39 7.80 34 0.87
Japan 5 43 8.60 43 1.00
Kenya 6 53 8.83 46 0.87
New Zealand 6 50 8.33 41 0.82
Papua New Guinea 5 50 10.00 48 0.96
South Africa 6 49 8.17 44 0.90
Russia 6 48 8.00 45 0.94
Samoa 6 51 8.50 42 0.82
Scotland 6 50 8.33 46 0.92
USA 5 43 8.60 39 0.91
Wales 5 43 8.60 38 0.88

Opponent Scoring

Team Opponent Tries Opponent Try Rate Opponent Con Atmpts Opponent Cons Opponent Con Rate
Argentina 12 0.29 12 9 0.75
Australia 17 0.39 17 12 0.71
Canada 14 0.41 14 10 0.71
England 9 0.31 9 6 0.67
Fiji 15 0.31 15 9 0.60
France 17 0.50 17 14 0.82
Japan 24 0.56 24 18 0.75
Kenya 15 0.33 15 6 0.40
New Zealand 12 0.29 12 8 0.67
Papua New Guinea 30 0.62 30 21 0.70
South Africa 4 0.09 4 1 0.25
Russia 20 0.44 19 11 0.58
Samoa 19 0.45 19 13 0.68
Scotland 15 0.33 14 9 0.64
USA 14 0.36 14 10 0.71
Wales 14 0.37 14 10 0.71

Passing

Team Passes Errors Err Rate Opponent Passes Opponent Errors Opponent Err Rate
Argentina 223 14.0 6.3% 190 11.0 5.8%
Australia 212 13.0 6.1% 211 15.0 7.1%
Canada 250 8.0 3.2% 156 7.0 4.5%
England 255 11.0 4.3% 172 8.0 4.7%
Fiji 192 13.0 6.8% 195 22.0 11.3%
France 160 10.0 6.2% 117 10.0 8.5%
Japan 173 13.0 7.5% 177 7.0 4.0%
Kenya 231 16.0 6.9% 209 14.0 6.7%
New Zealand 260 14.0 5.4% 197 16.0 8.1%
Papua New Guinea 145 14.0 9.7% 254 12.0 4.7%
South Africa 141 9.0 6.4% 197 14.0 7.1%
Russia 219 16.0 7.3% 249 13.0 5.2%
Samoa 157 11.0 7.0% 279 15.0 5.4%
Scotland 258 7.0 2.7% 268 15.0 5.6%
USA 199 16.0 8.0% 163 8.0 4.9%
Wales 201 16.0 8.0% 202 11.0 5.4%

Penalties and Cards

Team Penalties Against Yellow Cards Red Cards Opponent Penalties Opponent Yellow Cards Opponent Red Cards
Argentina 15 2 0 22 0 0
Australia 18 0 0 29 3 0
Canada 21 0 0 18 1 0
England 19 0 0 12 1 0
Fiji 17 3 0 15 0 0
France 14 0 0 9 1 0
Japan 17 1 0 20 1 0
Kenya 22 1 0 14 0 0
New Zealand 17 1 0 19 2 0
Papua New Guinea 9 1 0 15 2 0
South Africa 20 0 0 21 2 0
Russia 22 2 0 19 1 0
Samoa 23 6 0 17 0 0
Scotland 13 1 0 19 3 0
USA 16 1 0 17 2 0
Wales 10 0 0 11 0 0

Defensive Contact

Team Contact Opps D Successes D Failures Offloads D Success Rate
Argentina 110 63 27 20 57.3%
Australia 170 99 38 33 58.2%
Canada 95 59 20 16 62.1%
England 98 59 23 16 60.2%
Fiji 119 62 33 24 52.1%
France 85 48 22 15 56.5%
Japan 102 60 30 12 58.8%
Kenya 109 73 18 18 67.0%
New Zealand 121 73 23 25 60.3%
Papua New Guinea 152 59 60 33 38.8%
South Africa 163 109 30 24 66.9%
Russia 139 75 31 33 54.0%
Samoa 152 76 44 32 50.0%
Scotland 139 96 23 20 69.1%
USA 102 58 20 24 56.9%
Wales 107 68 18 21 63.6%

Offensive Contact

Team Contact Opps D Successes D Failures Offloads D Success Rate
Argentina 151 87 43 21 57.6%
Australia 130 81 33 16 62.3%
Canada 160 101 33 26 63.1%
England 99 54 29 16 54.5%
Fiji 131 70 25 36 53.4%
France 128 83 29 16 64.8%
Japan 112 71 13 28 63.4%
Kenya 152 82 41 29 53.9%
New Zealand 138 76 35 27 55.1%
Papua New Guinea 81 48 16 17 59.3%
South Africa 89 49 28 12 55.1%
Russia 151 112 26 13 74.2%
Samoa 132 75 41 16 56.8%
Scotland 116 63 25 28 54.3%
USA 110 51 24 35 46.4%
Wales 107 48 27 32 44.9%

Scrums

Team Scrums Wins Win % Opp Scrums Wins Win %
Argentina 3 2 66.7% 7 0 0.0%
Australia 8 8 100.0% 10 0 0.0%
Canada 7 6 85.7% 11 0 0.0%
England 5 5 100.0% 4 1 25.0%
Fiji 15 15 100.0% 9 1 11.1%
France 6 6 100.0% 7 0 0.0%
Japan 8 8 100.0% 7 0 0.0%
Kenya 9 9 100.0% 7 0 0.0%
New Zealand 12 12 100.0% 9 0 0.0%
Papua New Guinea 10 8 80.0% 6 0 0.0%
South Africa 8 8 100.0% 7 0 0.0%
Russia 12 11 91.7% 13 1 7.7%
Samoa 7 6 85.7% 6 1 16.7%
Scotland 10 9 90.0% 8 1 12.5%
USA 1 1 100.0% 9 0 0.0%
Wales 10 10 100.0% 10 2 20.0%

Lineouts

Team Lineouts Wins Win % Opp Lineouts Wins Win %
Argentina 5 5 100.0% 5 0 0.0%
Australia 12 9 75.0% 4 2 50.0%
Canada 10 10 100.0% 3 1 33.3%
England 10 10 100.0% 8 1 12.5%
Fiji 6 6 100.0% 6 0 0.0%
France 6 4 66.7% 7 2 28.6%
Japan 10 5 50.0% 8 0 0.0%
Kenya 3 3 100.0% 7 2 28.6%
New Zealand 8 8 100.0% 2 1 50.0%
Papua New Guinea 3 0 0.0% 4 0 0.0%
South Africa 5 5 100.0% 13 3 23.1%
Russia 2 2 100.0% 6 1 16.7%
Samoa 6 3 50.0% 10 4 40.0%
Scotland 5 3 60.0% 7 0 0.0%
USA 8 7 87.5% 6 1 16.7%
Wales 3 3 100.0% 6 1 16.7%

Receiving Kickoffs

Team Kickoffs Opp KO Errors Wins (w/o Errors) Win % (w/o Errors)
Argentina 18 2 13 81.2%
Australia 20 2 12 66.7%
Canada 15 0 15 100.0%
England 11 1 8 80.0%
Fiji 16 2 11 78.6%
France 21 2 12 63.2%
Japan 25 0 21 84.0%
Kenya 18 1 11 64.7%
New Zealand 15 1 12 85.7%
Papua New Guinea 29 3 14 53.8%
South Africa 10 0 9 90.0%
Russia 23 0 18 78.3%
Samoa 19 1 13 72.2%
Scotland 18 0 13 72.2%
USA 16 2 9 64.3%
Wales 16 0 9 56.2%

Kickoffs

Team Kickoffs Errors Wins Win % (w/ Errors)
Argentina 20 1 4 20.0
Australia 18 0 6 33.3
Canada 23 0 8 34.8
England 19 2 9 47.4
Fiji 24 1 7 29.2
France 11 0 4 36.4
Japan 8 0 0 0.0
Kenya 21 3 5 23.8
New Zealand 22 0 7 31.8
Papua New Guinea 9 0 2 22.2
South Africa 28 2 4 14.3
Russia 11 1 1 9.1
Samoa 20 1 7 35.0
Scotland 20 1 3 15.0
USA 16 3 3 18.8
Wales 16 1 3 18.8

Rucks

Team Rucks Wins Win % Opp Rucks Wins Win %
Argentina 74 64 86.5% 52 8 15.4%
Australia 70 63 90.0% 68 5 7.4%
Canada 90 79 87.8% 53 8 15.1%
England 44 37 84.1% 48 9 18.8%
Fiji 44 35 79.5% 48 8 16.7%
France 71 62 87.3% 41 5 12.2%
Japan 52 42 80.8% 50 5 10.0%
Kenya 64 58 90.6% 58 8 13.8%
New Zealand 59 52 88.1% 56 11 19.6%
Papua New Guinea 23 19 82.6% 44 2 4.5%
South Africa 36 33 91.7% 91 16 17.6%
Russia 97 84 86.6% 55 7 12.7%
Samoa 62 51 82.3% 54 6 11.1%
Scotland 55 47 85.5% 70 10 14.3%
USA 31 26 83.9% 51 10 19.6%
Wales 32 27 84.4% 53 6 11.3%

Breaks

Team Breaks Half Breaks Opponent Breaks Opponent Half Breaks
Argentina 12 11 14 8
Australia 12 14 21 9
Canada 22 12 13 7
England 13 10 13 8
Fiji 18 8 15 7
France 15 5 17 5
Japan 9 12 17 8
Kenya 23 11 13 6
New Zealand 14 10 16 5
Papua New Guinea 10 4 16 7
South Africa 17 2 10 7
Russia 10 10 22 16
Samoa 18 9 13 6
Scotland 23 7 16 10
USA 14 4 10 15
Wales 15 8 16 12

Wellington 2017 Pool Predictions

Using adjusted opportunity, gather, try, and conversion rates I am able simulate the score of matches. Then simulating each pool’s games 1000 times, I am able to predict each team’s chances of winning their pool or finishing in the top two. This method of simulating accommodates all of the different ways a pool can finish.

The simulations only use data from Dubai and Cape Town so I believe there is some overfitting happening. More than likely, each team should be closer to 50/50 than they are shown. Also, injuries are not accounted for. I don’t expect South Africa to be as dominant without Kyle Brown and Cecil Afrika. Lastly, I do not have data for Papua New Guinea so they are using data from Uganda. But considering PNG’s performance in previous tournaments, Uganda’s stats are only helping PNG’s chances.

Pool A

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
England 75.7 % 94.5 %
Argentina 16.8 % 67.2 %
Kenya 7.5 % 37.4 %
PNG 0.0 % 0.9 %

Pool B

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
South Africa 87.2 % 98.8 %
Fiji 11.2 % 68.8 %
Australia 1.6 % 32.4 %
Japan 0.0 % 0.0 %

Pool C

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
USA 50.8 % 82.3 %
New Zealand 36.7 % 71.5 %
France 11.4 % 37.6 %
Samoa 1.1 % 8.6 %

Pool D

Team Pool Win % Quarter-Final %
Scotland 65.8 % 92.7 %
Wales 29.3 % 81.5 %
Canada 4.9 % 23.0 %
Russia 0.0 % 2.8 %