It’s Vegas after all.
There are no guarantees in forecasting, but South Africa does have an astonishingly high chance of making the quarter-finals. The battle for second in Pool A between France, Wales, and Canada should be very entertaining. It may come down to who did best in a losing effort versus South Africa.
Pool A
| Team | Pool Win % | Quarter-Final % |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 98.2 % | 99.95 % |
| France | 0.8 % | 36.7 % |
| Wales | 0.7 % | 33.1 % |
| Canada | 0.4 % | 30.3 % |
Pool B has the clearest top two of any pool, England and USA should go through. Samoa’s handling has continued to be a problem but the narrow field has helped them in the past. I slotted Chile with PNG’s stats rather than Uganda’s as I don’t have high hopes for the Condors.
Pool B
| Team | Pool Win % | Quarter-Final % |
|---|---|---|
| England | 78.8 % | 98.4 % |
| USA | 19.6 % | 84.0 % |
| Samoa | 1.6 % | 17.5 % |
| Chile | 0.0 % | 0.2 % |
New Zealand should maintain their quarter-final streak while Argentina and Kenya will battle for second in Pool C. My numbers don’t think Russia’s resurgence in Sydney is all that maintainable. I expect an intense ruck battle in that Russia Kenya match.
Pool C
| Team | Pool Win % | Quarter-Final % |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 67.7 % | 91.1 % |
| Argentina | 19.0 % | 61.5 % |
| Kenya | 13.2 % | 44.6 % |
| Russia | 0.1 % | 2.9 % |
Fiji is a top three team but much more vulnerable than last season. Their offense has remained excellent but defensively they have weakened. Australia (in yet another tight pool) has the defense to create a close game and Scotland has the offense to match scores. Japan won a game in Sydney but should lose three in this pool.
Pool D
| Team | Pool Win % | Quarter-Final % |
|---|---|---|
| Fiji | 72.9 % | 94.6 % |
| Australia | 18.8 % | 67.2 % |
| Scotland | 8.4 % | 38.1 % |
| Japan | 0.0 % | 0.2 % |
USA has a legit shot at winning group B. Would be useful for them to find another Perry Baker for the rest of the season. Tight field or not, one missed tackle is all it takes.