Last week’s Wellington predictions were foiled by Canada’s surprise pool win and USA’s not-as-surprising 1-1-1 pool record. This week they find themselves together in possibly the tightest pool, Pool D. No team has a greater than 50% chance to come out on top.
Pool C is also tight. Australia, who I still rate in the top 8, may miss the quarter-finals again due to a difficult pool. New Zealand should keep their quarter-final streak alive while PNG is clearly set for the Challenge rounds on day 2.
Pool B has a tight contest for second between France and Wales while it also features the best 4th place team in Samoa. Meanwhile, Pool A should be dominated by two of the top three teams on the series, South Africa and England.
Pool A
| Team | Pool Win % | Quarter-Final % |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 87.8 % | 99.5 % |
| England | 11.5 % | 83.7 % |
| Kenya | 0.6 % | 16.6 % |
| Japan | 0.0 % | 0.1 % |
Pool B
| Team | Pool Win % | Quarter-Final % |
|---|---|---|
| Fiji | 84.1 % | 97.0 % |
| France | 9.2 % | 52.7 % |
| Wales | 4.9 % | 35.0 % |
| Samoa | 1.7 % | 15.3 % |
Pool C
| Team | Pool Win % | Quarter-Final % |
|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 51.2 % | 81.6 % |
| Scotland | 24.6 % | 61.7 % |
| Australia | 24.2 % | 56.7 % |
| PNG | 0.0 % | 0.0 % |
Pool D
| Team | Pool Win % | Quarter-Final % |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 46.1 % | 81.0 % |
| Argentina | 41.9 % | 78.3 % |
| Canada | 12.0 % | 40.0 % |
| Russia | 0.0 % | 0.7 % |